With the 2022 General elections barely two years away, the battle-lines appear to have been drawn in Kisumu County. Former Kisumu Governor Jack Ranguma has declared that he will seek to recapture the top seat he lost to former Senator Professor Anyang’ Nyong’o in a highly disputed 2017 elections.
Despite contesting the election results and arguing that there existed numerous election irregularities, Professor Nyongo’ carried the day, and he was sworn in as Kisumu Governor.
According to Ranguma, the electoral system had been manipulated to increase his opponent’s votes by giving wrong figures during transmission of results. The Professor had garnered 272,127 votes against Ranguma’s 156,963 votes.
As he plots his come-back, Jack Ranguma will have to plan very carefully because he has to surmount several obstacles seen to have worked against his strategies in 2017, causing him to lose the election.
In 2017, Ranguma fell victim to party politics, corruption allegations and nepotism, especially in the hiring of county staff.
The Odinga Factor and Ranguma’s Fall-Out with ODM
As Ranguma struggled to retain his seat in 2017, the former Governor was also heavily laden with “the baggage of incumbency”. He had the task of defending himself and his administration while he also had to contend with a major onslaught from ODM’s top leadership which had its problems with the Governor.
At the time he took Office, Ruth Odinga, Raila Odinga’s younger sister, settled for the post of Deputy Governor after her efforts to vie for the gubernatorial position was frustrated by Ranguma who refused to step down for her at the ODM’s nomination stage.
At that time, Ranguma had massive support from Kisumu residents (especially the youth) who perceived him as their “home-boy” while Ruth Odinga was seen more as “an outsider” from Siaya county.
To prevent a fall-out which could have cost ODM the gubernatorial seat, the party back-peddled on its strategy of imposing Ruth Odinga on the people of Kisumu and Ranguma captured the seat. Instead, Ruth was cajoled into downplaying her big ambitions and instead, convinced to deputize Ranguma. The duo romped into victory, and everybody appeared happy with the results.
Once the two protagonists settled in office, constant wars allegedly to control county resources dominated Ranguma’s first term. By the time of the next election in 2017, Ranguma was already in the bad books of the Odinga’s, a situation which Professor Nyong’o exploited by using his political connections to push Ranguma out of ODM party’s 2017 nomination circles. With the Party machinery firmly behind him, and with the Odingas providing an excellent political foundation, Ranguma had no good chance against Nyong’o.
Jack Ranguma’s Inherent Problems: The Handshake Factor
At the moment, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is the most popular party in Nyanza Province. Under the circumstances, the first problem Ranguma will have to contend with is the “stigma” of running for office outside the main ODM house.
It is almost a foregone conclusion that Professor Nyong’o will run on an ODM ticket. This popular platform will give the out-going Governor an enormous advantage over his competitors.
The sticking point is that the Handshake politics has catapulted Raila Odinga within reach of the Presidency and any politician seen not to be close to the Handshake may have to work harder to win a gubernatorial seat in Nyanza.
Since political jostling started following the Handshake dispensation, Ranguma has not publicly taken a position to support or reject the Handshake. After his perceived theft of votes that led to him losing his seat, Ranguma’s lackadaisical approach towards the Handshake is understandable.
While choosing to remain aloof may serve Ranguma’s interests for now, opposing the Handshake in its totality may not augur well for the former Governor’s political ambitions of recapturing his seat. This is because the bottom-line in Kisumu county is that any anti-Handshake candidate has a diminished chance in political leadership.
If he wants to make any head-way, Ranguma needs to support the Handshake now instead of procrastinating because regardless of his strategy, the Handshake is a critical political contraption he will need to weave his campaigns to appeal to ODM supporters.
Ranguma’s Problem of Fixing a Nyanza-Friendly Political Platform
In 2017, Ranguma was strategically edged out of ODM’s party nominations at the gubernatorial level after what Ranguma saw as underground scheming by Nyong’o. By then, Ranguma accused Professor Nyong’o of having used his historical connections with the Odinga family to win the ODM nomination.
It is notable that by the time Raila’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, passed away in 1994, Professor Anyang’ Nyong’o was his Personal Advisor. This means that the Professor still has substantial influence within the Odinga family which controls politics in Luo land. After Nyong’o grabbed ODM’s nomination certificate in 2017, and with no other options on the table, Ranguma was forced to vie as an Independent candidate, and he lost.
If he is to make a come-back, Ranguma will first have to look for a “good party” acceptable in Nyanza, pray that in 2022, he will retain the 156,000 votes he scooped in 2017 then look for more than 115,000 votes to be able to defeat Professor Nyong’o. This will be an uphill task.
If he does not get a “good party”, the former Governor will have to revert to vying as an independent candidate with the attendant disadvantages. Why?
The Option of an Independent Candidate and its Problems
For any governor to succeed in administration, the support of MCA’s at the County Assembly level is of crucial importance. An Independent candidate who happens to win the gubernatorial election will need the support of MCAs.
If Ranguma is perceived as an anti-ODM force, his campaign will be very complicated. This is because as an Independent candidate, he will have to convince the electorate on how he will govern with rebel ODM MCAs dominating the County Assembly with the attendant power to impeach a governor at the slightest provocation.
Additionally, Ranguma will be fighting against Nyongo’s advantage of incumbency, which gives the Political Scientist access to county resources. Although it is illegal for incumbents to exploit their positions to deploy state resources in political campaigns, Kenya’s political scene is replete with violation of election rules and 2022 will be no exception.
The Stigma of Having Presided Over a Corrupt Administration
Another Obstacle Ranguma will have to contend with is the stigma of “having been there” and failed. During his reign as Governor, Ranguma was repeatedly accused of failing to fulfil his election promises, condoning corruption and discrimination in the distribution of jobs and county resources.
Top on the list of critics was Ranguma’s failure to get rid of garbage across the city; failure to relocate hawkers from the CBD and inability to eliminate the eyesore Kachok dumpsite.
The former Governor was also accused of standing by as MCAs awarded themselves expensive foreign trips and creating crisis after crisis through illegal sacking of employees he disagreed with.
A case in point was the eviction of Doris Ombara, the then town manager, over allegations of misuse of funds. The wars Ranguma was accused of having created spread to the County Assembly following the ouster of Speaker Ann Adul who was allegedly evicted with Ranguma’s support. The consequence was that the passing of crucial Bills came to a halt due to a six-month impasse that befell the House.
Under the circumstances, Ranguma will have to plan how to fight the “having been there” stigma because, during his tenure, he had to face multiple corruption scandals that remained unresolved at the time of his exit.
A Litany of Corruption Scandals and Credibility Problems
For example, the former Governor was accused of having spent Ksh 21 million illegally on accommodation in a hotel as the county renovated his official residence. The scandal was that as he burnt county cash in a hotel, the county was also paying for his rent which stood at Ksh 540,000 by the time the scandal exploded.
When the former Governor signed a Ksh 14 billion deal with the German Development Corporation to manage solid waste in Kisumu, the company went public accusing senior officers in the Governor’s Office of demanding bribe to the tune of Ksh 50 million. By then, the company was facing difficulties in getting land for relocation of the Kachok dumpsite and officers involved all wanted “facilitation fees”.
Although the allegations were later denied by Merita Ombuor, County Director of Communication, the allegations only added to the long list of scams that bedevilled Ranguma’s administration.
Ranguma needs a good campaign team to clean up his reputation because, after his exit, the memory he left behind is that of corruption, bad roads, unpaid workers, unpaid contractors and poor infrastructure.
What Ranguma Must Do To Recapture His Kisumu Gubernatorial Seat
For him to recapture his seat, he will have to counter the numerous development projects that have sprouted in Kisumu city since his exit.
Professor Nyongo’s administration has fixed the Kachok dumpsite; roads that Ranguma left worn-out (especially the “Russian Road”) has been recarpeted; gigantic housing schemes like the Andersson-Ofafa estate have been launched together with other visible projects.
Although Ranguma has his explanations about what transpired during his reign, he will have to convince the people of Kisumu that given another chance, he will be able to do better.
Simply put, Ranguma’s task in recapturing his Kisumu gubernatorial seat is a long shot, and it will be interesting to see how he goes about organizing his campaign.
For him to make a come-back, his campaign team will have to put in place very powerful mobilization and propaganda tools. Ranguma’s inner circle must aim at discrediting Professor Anyang Nyongo’s perceived achievements in Kisumu county while selling Ranguma as a better candidate who may have learnt from the mistakes of the past.
His strategists will have to design a working formula which can diminish the “Odinga factor” which robbed Ranguma of ODM nomination certificate in 2017. Further, his inner-circle will have to create back-doors to help Ranguma gain access to the Handshake pie, which he needs to enter into mainstream politics.
The former Governor will have to declare his support for Raila’s Presidential bid, the BBI and the BBI Referendum while at the same time trying to convince the electorate “to allow the people to decide” by keeping the Odingas out of Kisumu county’s electoral politics.
This is why Jack Ranguma is facing a daunting task in his bid to recapture his seat as Kisumu Governor.
Kenneth Ochieng
